Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Ascent Taipei
decks
41
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
505
258-214-33
overall winrate
54.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.1%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310
· median 1257
· range 1056–1599
(41 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1201
Q3 1386
1736
32% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 48.1% | 164 | 82-70-12 | 53.7% | 53.6% | 55.8% | +1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.9% | 34 | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 40.8% | 46.9% | -1.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 28 | 14-13-1 | 51.8% | 51.6% | 53.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.6% | 26 | 13-11-2 | 53.8% | 53.3% | 59.9% | +3.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 32 | 16-14-2 | 53.1% | 52.8% | 48.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 29 | 13-11-5 | 53.4% | 53.0% | 52.7% | +1.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 16 | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -1.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 15 | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 31.6% | 28.9% | -8.6 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 16 | 11-4-1 | 71.9% | 67.5% | 68.9% | +7.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 18 | 10-6-2 | 61.1% | 59.1% | 57.4% | +2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 27 | 11-15-1 | 42.6% | 43.5% | 44.3% | -2.1 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 10 | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 55.0% | +2.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 14 | 7-5-2 | 57.1% | 55.6% | 59.7% | +4.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 42.0% | -3.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 51.2% | +0.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 66.0% | +9.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 51.6% | +0.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 74.7% | +13.2 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +6.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 78.5% | +18.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.4% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +7.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.6% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.2% | +5.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.4% | +7.7 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.9 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 41 from this event
The 41 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
-
Chuwubs
-
Yueh
-
hachico
-
Boy
-
Slaine
-
Conman
-
GGplx
-
Weihaoo
-
Neoniclax
-
Acheron
-
Yamikage
-
Valence
-
Zero99
-
barbarian
-
GlenyBoi
-
yarok
-
IanChan
-
GLOOMYBEAR
-
KonoFare
-
YungHwa
-
CPang
-
Zanie
-
Bento
-
chazzex
-
TOMLI
-
key13
-
Nicholas
-
Kwaytiao
-
Makota
-
Lsivmdz
-
MJs
-
KagamiGlass
-
MasterLiang
-
ALV155GOD
-
Sakuya
-
Shang
-
MephinX
-
Jasper89
-
Kenvk32
-
Serious
-
Fatpig
Mirror Analysis
In 13 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Crux Sight, Resolute Stand, Sword of Shadows. Losers more often ran: Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Sudden Steel, Safeguard Amulet.
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Sword of Shadows
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Vanish from Sight
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Scavenging Raccoon
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Morgan, Soul Guide
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Sudden Steel
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Heavenly Guide
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Sword of Seeking
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crux Sight | +0.38 | 8 | 3 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.31 | 6 | 2 | 5 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.31 | 1 | 5 | 7 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.31 | 3 | 7 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.31 | 1 | 5 | 5 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.23 | 3 | 6 | 4 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.23 | 6 | 3 | 4 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 7 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.15 | 6 | 4 | 3 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 3 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 7 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 12 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 6 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.08 | 5 | 6 | 2 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 12 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 5 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |